The Fertilizer Market in Early 2025 Shows Positive Signals

Entering 2025, Vietnam's fertilizer market is witnessing positive signals as global fertilizer prices trend upward while domestic consumption demand remains stable. Domestic fertilizer manufacturers have significant advantages in exports, capitalizing on international market fluctuations.

 

Fertilizer Prices on the Rise in Both Global and Domestic Markets

According to a survey by global market research firm Argus, urea prices in the Middle East have increased to $410-$415 per ton FOB, while in Egypt, prices have risen from $432 per ton FOB to $450 per ton FOB. Additionally, import demand from India and European countries is keeping fertilizer prices elevated.

The DAP market is also experiencing price increases in multiple regions. In the U.S., DAP prices for February delivery have risen to $588 per short ton FOB Nola. Meanwhile, Europe has also recorded higher DAP prices due to limited supply. The South Asian market is vibrant, with India signing a contract to purchase 1.6 million tons of DAP from OCP (Morocco), with deliveries scheduled from February to December 2025.

NPK prices are also showing an upward trend. India has purchased about 30,000 tons of NPK from China at $397 per ton CFR. Major importers in the country have also issued new tenders to secure supply for 2025.

Fertilizer Price Movements in Vietnam

In Vietnam, urea prices have risen sharply since mid-January and continue to increase into February 2025, following global market trends. Specifically:

• Ca Mau urea prices in Ho Chi Minh City and Long An have reached 11,200 VND/kg.
• Phu My urea prices in Ho Chi Minh City range from 11,300-11,400 VND/kg.
• Ninh Binh urea is being sold at 11,000 VND/kg.
• Ha Bac urea prices, after adjustments, have increased to around 10,900-11,000 VND/kg.

Fertilizer exports are also progressing smoothly. In January 2025, Vietnam exported nearly 73,000 tons of urea, with projections for February reaching approximately 70,000 tons.

 

Stable Supply Ensuring the Domestic Market

Vietnam currently has four major urea production plants: Phu My, Ca Mau, Ninh Binh, and Ha Bac. These factories are operating steadily, ensuring sufficient domestic supply for agricultural production.

In the Mekong Delta, most winter-spring rice fields have completed sowing, with urea usage reaching 90% of total demand. In the central region, the South Central and Central Central provinces have completed two main fertilization phases. The northern region is entering its first fertilization period after the Lunar New Year.

Domestic urea consumption in February is expected to reach about 100,000 tons, a decrease from January as earlier demand has been met. Meanwhile, urea inventory this month is projected to rise to 411,000 tons.

 

Fertilizer Price Trends Forecast for 2025

Experts predict that fertilizer prices in Vietnam may increase slightly by 3-5% compared to 2024 due to various international factors. However, thanks to stable domestic supply and appropriate regulatory policies, prices are not expected to experience drastic fluctuations.

Key factors influencing fertilizer prices include:

• Raw material costs: The prices of natural gas, sulfur, and ammonia could impact fertilizer production costs.
• Export demand: Major markets such as India, Pakistan, and Brazil could influence global price trends.
• Transportation costs and exchange rates: Fluctuations in exchange rates and logistics costs could cause variations in imported fertilizer prices.

 

Tax Policies and Their Impact on Fertilizer Companies

Starting July 1, 2025, fertilizers will be subject to a 5% value-added tax (VAT). This change will benefit domestic companies by reducing production costs and increasing profit margins. The policy is expected to create more favorable conditions for local enterprises to compete with imported fertilizers.

 

Conclusion

Vietnam's fertilizer market in 2025 is showing many positive signs due to stable supply and growing domestic demand. Fertilizer prices are expected to rise slightly but remain within a manageable range, providing farmers with price stability for production. Businesses also have more export opportunities as global fertilizer prices increase.

With market regulatory support and the development of the domestic fertilizer industry, 2025 promises to be a promising year for Vietnam's fertilizer sector.

 

Source:thoibaotaichinhvietnam.vn

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